I was reminded by the report in The Washington Post on Monday of the catastrophic bridge collapse in Hassanabad, Pakistan that failures large and small are predictable. (Ref. 1) And most are preventable. For sure, probably not this one but knowing it could happen goes a long way to preventing loss of life.
The cause this time was a lake flooding at the toe of a glacier and spilling out to charge the river beneath the bridge. The flooding, as easily explained by glaciologists, was due to record heat and a melting glacier – climate change. The bridge had no problems with flood waters for decades; it was the magnitude this time.
I can imagine the glaciologists raised the alarm but who listens to such esoteric scientists? For that matter, to engineers and applied scientists, in general, about problems in the built environment?
I thought about the Saint John river flood a few years ago when I read about the bridge collapse in the Post. This flood, due to snow melt raising the level of the Mactaquac Dam reservoir, was predictable and not so unlike what happened in Pakistan. The flooding was often prevented in the past by the periodic release of water from the Dam to keep the reservoir level down. But there is a trade-off between keeping the water level down to prevent flooding and up to generate electricity.
So so so many problems in the built and natural environments are predictable based on simple engineering and physic’s principles – simple physics like in high school. Problems like bridge failures, ground subsidence in Karst terrain, construction crane collapses, foundation failures, floods, slip and falls, etc. You name it, what can wrong can often be predicted.
But sadly not prevented in the short term as climate change wreaks it’s wrath waiting for the world to catch on.
References
- Patel, Kasha, The Washington Post, Monday, May 9, 2022
(Posted by Eric E. Jorden, M.Sc., P.Eng. Consulting Professional Engineer, Forensic Engineer, Geotechnology Ltd., Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, May 11, 2022. ejorden@eastlink.ca)