Climate change will increase the number of disputes and insurance claims. These will occur, for example, because designing for strong wind on a building or tower, heavy rain on a storm water system or big waves on a sea wall all depend to some extent on past knowledge. This knowledge will be more limited for bigger or lighter winds, rains and seas as we learn about the effects of climate change.
The design engineer – a reasonable person – will take an educated guess on the effect of the weather on his structure but it will be a rougher guess as we climb up the learning curve.
(I mean a reasonable person as referenced in the concept of the standard of care. (Refs 1, 2) Design engineers will make reasonable decisions during climate change)
My thoughts on this arose on learning about a failure caused by a “mother-of-a-rain-storm” – in the opinion of some. The erosion and sedimentation control structures on a construction site failed and a lake was contaminated by sediment.
When we design a structure today where climate is a factor, we must now factor in climate change, and the uncertainty associated with this process as we learn.
For example, in the past we might have designed a structure for a 1 in 50 year rain storm. Today we must design the structure for a more or less severe rain storm depending on the expected climate change in the area of the structure. But, how much more or less?
Also, in the past we had codes and handbooks to guide us on design of structures for a particular storm. Today I expect that type of guidance has not kept up with climate change and the decision of a reasonable person will prevail in design.
Do you want more on the answer to the question in the heading?
In the years ahead, climate change will result in over-design – more costly structures, and under-design – more failures, disputes and claims. The reasonable person, the design engineer, will know the risk and attempt to reduce it. To give you some idea of what they’re up against, consider the rough estimate of a two (2) metre rise in sea level off our shores over the next 50 years, according to one friend, (Ref. 3) and a few feet to a few metres according to another. (Ref. 4)
References
- Dr. Google and Wikipedia will give you an idea about the standard of care and the reasonable person – an okay start to understanding this concept
- A Bundle of Blogs: On assessing the standard of care. Posted 2022/8/12. There’s a lot of good reading in these blogs, particularly Blog #5 in the Bundle, and reference to sources. Scroll down the right side of www.ericjorden.com/blog to the year and month, 2022/8/12.
- Comment by a friend, an oceanographer, about sea level rise based on what was known about climate change a few years ago. April, 2023
- Fillmore, Peter, personal communication, April, 2023
(Posted by Eric E. Jorden, M.Sc., P.Eng. Consulting Professional Engineer, Forensic Engineer, Geotechnology Ltd., Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, April 29, 2023. ejorden@eastlink.ca)